The week has started with lots of hype surrounding the news of the 13th round of negotiations between the US and China and their ongoing ‘trade-war’. Negotiations took two days and improvements were announced by both parties, and with that ahead, the risk appetite of investors spiked again. The fear index lowered and global indices moved into an uptrend, especially US Dow and SPX, and China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen Composite.
With that being said, investors felt like there is no longer a need for a safe-haven and Gold sellers were waiting for the right signal to sell the precious metal.
Gold/USD at the moment of this writing is being traded at 1481. The price has tested the support at 1475 and looks like it would give another try to hit the dynamic resistance again. However, to do so, there must be a real purchasing power to get the price back to the 1500s. At the current state, the price most likely will break the support level of 1475 and move downwards towards 1463–1450 support levels.
If we take a look at the chart from another perspective, then the previously mentioned levels are most likely to be hit during the next weeks:
Here, you can see a downtrend move on hourly chart:
If the support stays strong and the price isn’t able to make an impulse move downward, then Gold will probably test 1507, and if move is impulsive, 1534 as well.
Boris Johnson is not getting a Brexit deal this year. This was statement was announced just as we are approaching the last quarter of the year. As such, the GBPUSD rose to massive hype yesterday, October 10, and continued with today’s 1.85% gain. We have predicted this scenario in one of our previous analyses last week.
Our analyst has detected a Cup and Handle pattern backed by rebound of the pair from dynamic resistance. See screen below:
Not only that, but technicals gave GBP such tremendous power along with this weeks GDP updates, which were above all expectations. Even the announced -0.7% of Manufacturing Production on Thursday, October 10, couldn’t hold the GBPUSD from this pump upward. Of course, data from the US, and growing political tensions where US is involved did their job to weaken USD against the EUR and GBP as well.
GBPUSD is now at a very decisive level. All economic updates and global economic data will be affecting the pair next week. For long-term we expect GBP to remain bearish and test 1.2550. But if the price closes above the dynamic resistance on the daily chart, then we will most likely will see a scenario shown in the snapshot below:
Brent Petroleum was about to break the support level of 58.50 and continue the downtrend to 55.00. Saudi Aramco has reported that repairs of the Oil Refinery is going as planned and the oil production is getting back to normal. However, two decent-sized events drove the price of crude to a 3%, including an explosion on Iranian tanker — where leakage of petroleum was confirmed by the Iranian government — and a confirmation from OPEC on cutting production ahead of their December meeting. Iran reported that the explosion was caused by two missiles, claiming that this was a terrorist attack, some opinions also say that the explosion of the tanker was revenge, as Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for Aramco drone attacks. Escalation of conflicts in the Gulf might support the price of the Black Gold to continue its uptrend as both sides will take measures to prevent easy access of each other’s supply chain.
Here are some key levels to watch next week. First of all, the price is approaching the 61.600 resistance which according to the chart below is pretty strong and may bring down the price back to 58.100–58.200 if rejected. However, if the price is above the 61.600 then there is huge potential for another test of 65.300 and 68.000.
BTCUSD
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general showed a positive climb this week. BTC has found a support 7760 and gained 4.44% on price. The climb has continued until sellers detected another resistance zone at 8800, which was a resistance level in the end of May and first few days of June. The uptrend was halted by an evening star yesterday, October 10th.
Today, due to lack of purchasing power of buyers, sellers pushed down the price to 8300, and BTC is currently being traded at 8357 per Bitcoin, losing 2.72% just today. Overall the market makers and traders are expecting the price to hit 9500 USD per BTC which is considered as a decision making point for the next long-term bearish or bullish move of the first-ever cryptocurrency.
As for now we will take the current support level of 8300 USD as a key point for short-term trade. Above or below this level will give us another yet buy or sell signal.
The price Saturday or Sunday might form another Doji candle with a reversed uptrend move, since current trades especially on hourly chart look very poor, and seems like BTC is still losing its dominance in the crypto market.
On the BTC Dominance daily chart, the downtrend looks like more of a correction, however, taking this chart as a fundamental part of a trading strategy would be incorrect, so consider it as only a supplement to this outlook.
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